Dunbar: I think you are correct that this probably an aberration that will regress downward over time. The MSW to G2 is hitting at a higher percentage and at longer odds for the past couple years.
But even looking at data going back 5 years to 2015, there is a huge ROI difference between G2 and G3:
MSW to G2 vs MSW to G3 since Jan 1, 2015:
% WIN: 13.37% vs 12.89%
ROI: -9% vs -38%
Arg Odds Winners: 5.82 vs 3.83
I think the basic takeaway is that you are likely to get higher odds on a maiden winner in a G2 than a G3, yet they have won at a similar percentage for the past five years.
Cheers,
Otis
PS> I am getting this data using the Angler app in Betmix. Very fun to fool around with.
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"Good luck had just stung me, so to the race track I did go" - Levon Helm
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