Quote:
Originally Posted by knickslions2
I can't wait to see the Cuban Sandwich bet.
I just started to dissect this. Classic causeway gate to wire!!!  . Epicenter is the horse to beat and no way I leave him out of tri. I see no faults in the horse. Charge It could be sitting on a nice one and is a quality win bet based on value. Messier is the other I think can win as those three should be sitting perfect off the front runners. Those three are my musts in tri box as I can't see none of them not in top three. I'm not sure what to think on Taiba but leaning towards a toss. Zandon and Mo Donegal both need to be closer than projected as there are quality horses that will be sitting better and will be hard to pass. I'm still looking for those derby tri fillers that come every year. Good luck. |
I'm a big believer in Timeform figures. Epicenter has had 6 weeks so obviously he could improve plenty from the LA Derby figure but his top two numbers are 113/118. This puts him on par with horses like Zandon (108/119) and Smile Happy (108/118) and behind horses like Mo Donegal (121), Messier (127/123), and Taiba (125). That alone has me hesitant about him.
But I also feel like he got an easy trip in the Risen Star with his main rivals not at their peak and then got another easy trip in the Louisiana Derby with his main rivals huge question marks as far as their overall abilities. His ability to rate was impressive and that race rightfully put him at the top of the Derby contender list...but I'm skeptical given the speed figures and my doubts about him getting another easy trip. Maybe I should be more skeptical of Zandon. I don't know. He could easily run into trouble and not finish well. Epicenter is probably more likely than Zandon to be able to work out a good trip for himself.
There is still a lot of time. I may change my mind another 50 times before Saturday.