Race 4 (Vase):
When the entries came out I was looking at trying to beat #1 Flintshire based on the fact that sometimes the big guns come to HK and fail, and he'd also be coming off two grueling efforts in the Arc and BC Turf. However, he won't have to get out of first gear to win this; it's one of the weakest Vase lineups of recent memory. He's also only had the five runs this season so he's surely still got something in the tank. He's been the pick of the foreigners in the mornings and flourishes on quicker ground. Connections have won this race previously and at upwards of 2-1 it might be worth thinking of putting the savings on this one. Something would seriously have to go wrong for him not to win this.
#4 Empoli is hard one to guess right on, but his severely hampered 4th behind Gentildonna in Dubai and 2nd to Meandre last year shows that on his day he does have the ability. Has targeted this since his Preis von Europa win in September, which was a run I liked as he had to switch out belated to get clear running. Drawn wide but that shouldn't matter too much. German stayers have proven their worth lately and he is being forgotten about at around 20-1.
At first I thought that the '11 Italian Derby second, #8 Willie Cazals, was a bit overrated but then I took a much closer look at his longer distance races in HK. Came home with his big run to win at 11f and followed that up by rocketing home in 21.99 to miss by a nose behind Dominant. Nothing wrong with finishing second to California Memory in a HK G1 at the distance. Has had his issues in the year and a half since those races but has shown this season he's getting back to his best. Couldn't come home any quicker than the 21.89 final sectional in his last and this may be his best distance.
I'll take a chance on #6 Bubble Chic. The locals very rarely even hit the board in this event, but he was a classy 3yo in France (2nd in French Derby) so there's obviously some quality in him. Put a pen through his first two runs this season at 7f, and two back he gave away a lot of weight at a shorter distance. Faded late in his last but still ran a super quick final 200m. A winner over this distance last season and Teetan rides him best. I actually had him second initially but started to like the other two a bit more on final glance.
Red Cadeaux's non-Melbourne Cup form over the past 19 months is not appealing. Parish Hall took out a G1 as a 2yo but hasn't been anywhere near that since. 3yo males have one placing (a second) from 18 runners in this event. Stoute knows what he's doing but good luck to him on breaking that stat with Snow Sky.
Race 5 (Sprint):
#4 Sterling City: Troubled running lines seems to be the common theme with this horse. Excuses in all three of his runs this season and even in last year's renewal. Was never going to beat Lord Kanaloa but was never fully tested before galloping out strongly. Double digit odds would be a silly price for an Int'l G1 winner who should get a perfect trip.
#11 Flagship Shine: Has had three tries in HK over the trip and all runs have been fantastic. Won on HK debut, lost the bob behind a slow pacesetter (a decent foe in his own right), and a solid third in the Trial. Caught wide but showed he can run well from off the speed. Wasn't very competitive in G1 class last year but this might be his best distance. Actually led at the furlong pole in the 7f event against a stacked field. Moore has been very coy on his chances and he's recently pulled a shocker in this event. Expect a big run at odds.
#1 Lucky Nine: Lost all hope in this last year at the start and back to back Krisflyers show the old legs still have it. Given no chance when blocked most of the straight in the Trial but caught the eye when he finally got out. Lost twice to Buffering in Oz last year but it seems that age has caught up to that one. The '11 winner would become the oldest winner of this race should he get the prize again.
#9 Aerovelocity: Not often you'll see a G1 this deep see a horse who ran last of 14 in his final prep end up favoured. Completely chopped out twice in the straight that day and you can just put a pen through that run. 6yo ran right up the grades ever since adding the blinkers. Only other losses since the addition besides his last was his first run with blinkers, which was his first-up run (3rd), and a go over 7f at the end of last season (2nd). Lovely draw but I'm not sure he's actually much better than #10 Smart Volatility and #12 Golden Harvest. Tough gates for both but they've shown they're just as good. All three are worth using.
#2 Spalato: Foggy circumstances surrounding his HK prep run...Absolutely flying form from Singapore where he's a Derby winner at 10f but also ran 6f in 1:08.15...Lofty 120 international rating and it looks like he's been working much better. Drawn wide but I don't know if many will try and take on the Buff and so he might be able to slot over and work out a good trip. Willing to give him another chance.
Sole Power is always a question at the distance (someone had to run second last year...). As mentioned above, Buffering doesn't look as good this year. Gordon Lord Byron will be praying for rain, and Europeans don't have much success in this event. Snow Dragon won her first turf race in a G1 at 46-1, will get too far back...Peniaphobia ran a huge one in taking out the Trial but how much is left in the tank? 3yos don't have a great record in this race either. Females also have an appalling history in this race, but with that aside I don't think the Japanese sprinting crop this season is anything special.
Race 7 (Mile):
#9 World Ace: First up run wasn't that bad as he still came home in quick time and it seems as though he much prefers going right-handed. Last out of the gate in the Mile Championship and twice had stop-start occasions in the stretch. Solid gallop out as well. Lightly raced 5yo was not far off in two G1s as a 3yo and it was scintillating win in the G2 Yomiuri Milers Cup over Fiero. Should get a great run from the 4 draw and at around 20-1 looks well worth the odds.
#1 Able Friend: It's hard to find a fault with him and his devastating turn of foot. He just tends to drop too far back for my liking whenever he gets a wide draw, and even if he goes forward with the lack of pace in here there's always a chance of him getting posted out wide and without cover. The Magic Man will have to bring his A-game for the ride and while he's the most likely winner, I'll try and make some value from a wagering standpoint.
#2 Gold-Fun: Was my initial pick based on the fact I thought he might get first run on Able Friend, but it just bugs me that he came in last year as the hot horse and wasn't able to get it done. Pressure off this year and maybe it's his time now that he's forgotten about.
#6 Fiero: Keeps on improving and does show some pace from earlier on in his form. Rail draw can allow him to slide forward and get a good position. Just think he might be a notch below.
Glorious Days surely can't do it again off a long layoff. Grand Prix Boss is very inconsistent and continues to be luckless at the draw. Ambitious Dragon has had and continues to have too many problems for my liking. Trade Storm went to the lead in his last two UK runs, but he's not this class, especially counter-clockwise.
Race 8 (Cup):
#7 Endowing: '13 Derby second and won two preps for this encounter last season. Never really got a chance to settle in that race and was well beaten. Two subsequent races were also iffy but was given a long break to freshen up for this season. Strong first-up run when most of them already had a race under their belt and showed he was rounding back to his best with a close third in the Trial, coming home in 21.90, the fastest sectional on his form line. He's 2 for 2 third-up in HK, and both those wins have been by far his best races since being imported. Prefers it firmer and is primed for a 20-1 upset.
#2 Designs On Rome: Very little wrong with what he did last season. Quickest final 200m of 21.82 in the Trial after missing the start by a length but overall he just hasn't brought the same performances as last year. The one to beat and use him on top, but is also worth trying to beat.
#5 California Memory: First two this season were obvious preps but they were fantastic runs. Battled on well and kept fighting last out. He's won this twice before and can sneak into the exotics at a big price.
#3 Military Attack: Was not at all the same horse last season as he was the one prior. Has returned to form in his two runs this season with it being hard to knock anything from either of those races. Will go close again and is a major contender.
Cirrus Des Aigles has beaten Treve, Anodin, and Flintshire this year in winning three G1s, but that foot problem a day from the race is concerning to say the least. Blazing Speed put up a career best in taking out the Trial and needs to prove it wasn't a one-off. Criterion hasn't returned to his form from the Spring Carnival and Aussies have been poor in this race recently. Farraaj is not this class. Archimedes has worked well for this but it is a big ask for his first try in the grade. The other three HK runners are just pace influences making up the numbers.
Have not really looked at the undercard yet. Good luck!
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