I understand the logic, but aren't you discounting the fact that the horse was a firster that was probably discouraged and couldn't win after that kind of trouble? He didn't have a trip in the sense that he had a bad set-up, was 5 wide around the turn, etc., but he still had a trip that prevented him from contending for the win. He's almost certainly a better horse than he was able to show in his debut and is bred for the stretch-out, but the problem is that anyone capable of reading the PPs will get that.
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