Quote:
Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up
I feel like watching Songbird at 4 was like watching Paseana at 6.
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I liken the visual "decline" in performance to watching a regional champ move into the main circuit. Still winning (most of the time) but having to work harder to do it.
Whatever you can say about Songbird's brilliance at 2 and 3, one has to admit that a large part of the theatrics was the fact that she was pummeling turf horses (Mokat) and maidens (She's A Warrior) at Santa Anita (4 times mind you) to start the season, then faced a pair of late-running sprinters (Cathryn Sophia and Carina Mia) at 9f and 10f. She had those over a barrel and that led to the inflation of her reputation. The BC Distaff was the true measuring stick of her overall ability as a 3yo. Given the relative pace advantage and the fact that she lost, she failed the world-beater acid test.
While she has not improved this year, her races this year to me easily fit with her performance in the BC Distaff. The Ogden Phipps, off a layoff and a ship, was a loaded race based on subsequent performances. The Delaware Handicap, her weakest performance, was at a distance that she in all likelihood doesn't care for. Similar speed-laden females like Azeri, Sky Beauty, Serena's Song, Saratoga Dew, Ashado and Rachel Alexandra were all vulnerable at 10f. Many of those actually got beat at the distance by lesser rivals. Yesterday she got tagged by a horse that unlike Carina Mia and Cathryn Sophia, could sustain a run and had threatened to run her down in the past. Without as deep a field, but still with a formidable rival, the race played out much like the BC Distaff last year. It was a slight form reversal (by Forever Unbridled) at best.