I have spent over 90min at work tonight looking at the three graded stakes races. That all stakes pick 3 will be my big play of the weekend. Here are my thought so far.
I’m lost in the Gallant Bob. 4 or 5 can win IMO. I need to look at the race more and watch a few more replays.
The Cotillion. Another tough one for me. I want to be against Untapable, but she has multiple races that crush everyone else’s best. I think it is fair to argue that she has peaked already though and she could be tailing off a little bit. Ill use her. One ticket will just be singled/pressed to her, I just can’t totally toss her. That’s more because I don’t believe she is facing much then it is that I am confident in her. If Hushion had sent Artemis Argotera to this spot, I might have singled her…… Anyway Ill back up with Jojo Warrior and House Rules. They are both well connected horses who I believe are moving forward. Price will be fair on both of them. I am totally against Sweet Reason and Stopchargingmaria. Sweet Reason is a 7f-8f one turn horse. There is nothing wrong with that. I can even understand why they are taking a shot in here. If she were to win this she would probably jump ahead of Untapable for the 3yr old filly eclipse award. I just don’t see it and if she wins I lose. Its one thing for her to win a 2 turn race at Aqueduct in the spring its another thing to beat multiple G1 winners going 2 turns in this spot. Stopchargingmaria IMO is even less likely to win then Sweet Reason. Somehow they have got two G1 wins and 1.4million earned out of this filly, with a lifetime best beyer of 94. It’s really incredible and all the props in the world to the connections…. If there are no scratches she should be around 10-1. She will probably be closer to 4-1 because of Repole, Todd and JV. Maybe I’m way off about her maybe she builds off that 94 beyer 2 starts back and moves forward and wins…. If that happens I lose.
The PA Derby. I want no part of California Chrome at all. If he wins, I lose. California Chrome has accomplished a lot on the track. Because Bayern, Wicked Strong and Tonalist did not win the Travers he is still probably the leader for the 3yr old eclipse award. With that being said I think his best races are behind him. He peaked early, nothing wrong with that. I’m going to press Bayern. He has the fastest races and there is not a lot of speed in here. He is probably a miler. Its one thing for a miler to stretch to 9f, that’s doable. It’s another thing for a miler to try going 10f with Tonalist and Wicked Strong coming after you early. I guess CJ’s Awesome could go after him, but I’m not even sure it would matter going 9f @Parx. Im going to back up with Protonico and Noble Moon. They are both lightly raced and I believe there are reasons to like both of them. Protonico has a decent win over the track. On beyer he has moved forward in every race that he has run in this year. He has pressed a hot pace and closed from well off of a hot pace. He ran fine 2 back in the Curlin and obviously VE Day came back to win the Travers. This horse has done nothing wrong this year. He is versatile. Having Javier Castellano does not hurt. Noble Moon, I think Noble Moon is really good. I think he ran really well off the layoff in the Kings Bishop. If you really take this horses races apart you can come to the conclusion that he has never run a bad race in his career. He is going to be 15-1 or more and I think he is sitting on a big race 2nd start back.
|