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Old 07-29-2014, 12:42 AM
Kitan Kitan is offline
Gulfstream Park
 
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Other side of the globe
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Didn't have a great deal of time to look at Tuesday's card so I spent most of it on the two two year old races where I think there might be value.

Race 2:
#5 Fast Act showed promise on debut and confirmed that with a good win two back. Was no match for Tiggy Wiggy last time but I don't think anything else in here would have done much better. Around 14/1 with most bookmakers and that is fantastic value.
#1 Beacon is obviously the one to beat, but I'm not convinced by what he's beaten so far and odds-on is not worth it.
#3 Cotai Glory is finally showing his ability and the drop down back to 5f will suit.
#8 Spirit of Xian is the least heralded of the three Hannon runners but could sneak a good race at around 20/1. On paper this filly didn't run a step last out in France, but the race wasn't that bad as speed heavily dominated on a wet track. The return to 5f will help, and hopefully the blinkers do too.

Think a box here will suit while also using the 5 as a key.

Race 5: These baby maidens in the UK are always tough as there is limited data available, but I could see some prices coming in here.
#8 Koptoon has a good 2yo pedigree and Dascombe can get them ready early. Will be at least double digits.
#10 Misleading is another with a good young pedigree and is well regarded by a top outfit. Buick didn't give much away in his blog, but he is taking money with the bookies.
#14 Sirdaab was the top priced City Zip yearling at the Keeneland September sales, and his second dam did win a 5f turf sprint. Average amount of interest in the betting at around 14/1.
I'll use those on top with the following underneath:
#1 Acaster Malbis: Hughes lands on this of the three Hannon runners which signals something, but he may want further distance.
#4 Dark Profit is another who is well regarded and showed much improvement last out. Very dangerous if he can step forward again.
#11 Moodrick may want further than the 6f but I just couldn't not use him.
#12 Mutafarrej is getting a suspicious amount of talk and money, which is why I'll use him because I can't off that form.
#15 Winstanley is one of those that I don't like but I don't want to get beaten by either.

8, 10, 14 with 1, 4, 11, 12, 15 used underneath.


Also---Kingman runs on Wednesday.
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