Belmont Data : The First Quarter, The Far Turn, and Trakus
Beyer's article does represent one view, but I had a slightly different take on Victor Espinoza's ride that has not been discussed : If you (as Espinoza did) decide to tuck after the opening quarter, what do you do after that point? As they headed up the backstretch, I was sure that Espinoza had sufficient horse to sit the pocket and pick a seam coming to the head of the stretch. Yes, this was a risky strategy, but it was how to play the pocket trip at Belmont once you decide to relinquish the lead.
Instead, my view was that the race was lost heading into the far turn. With my cheering, I implored Victor to stay inside. Instead, he swung four wide heading into the far turn losing a great deal of momentum in the process.
Now, was that a deciding factor? I am not sure - the Trakus data shows Tonalist running 8081 feet with every other competitor running less distance (which was a shocker to me) including California Chrome (-38), Commissioner (-67), Medal Count (-64), and Wicked Strong (-18).
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