Hall of Fame
If Calvin Borel is enshrined in the Hall of Fame on the basis of his 3 Derby wins --- should Victor Espinoza get in on the basis that he's now won 2 Kentucky Derby's and is an otherwise, far superior jockey to Borel?
There is no truer way to determine the value of a jockey than long-term ROI. The sample sizes are huge, and even winning on a 70/1 shot barely does anything for you. The closing odds on the toteboard represents a lot more than just 'the wisdom of the crowd'
Sure, some jockeys attract betting attention on the basis of their name, but they also have the advantage of getting shorter-priced mounts -- and shorter priced horses have a higher long-term ROI than longer-priced ones.
Victor Espinoza stands out in riding Dirt Routes.
Since 1998:
Overall: 2,438 mounts, 19% wins, $2.11 ROI
Maiden races: 612 mounts, 18% wins, $2.03 ROI
Claiming races: 720 mounts, 21% wins, $2.09 ROI
Allowance races: 428 mounts, 17% wins, $2.21 ROI
Stakes races: 509 mounts, 18% wins, $2.13 ROI
Not only has he produced a 5.5% profit from 2,438 mounts -- but he's produced a profit throughout every single major class category.
The greatest categorical ROI jockey through virtually all of that entire span was Ramon Dominguez riding Turf Routes.
Ramon Dominguez Turf Routes since '98:
Overall: 2106 mounts, 23% wins, $2.29 ROI
Maiden races: 524 mounts, 20% wins, $2.28 ROI
Claiming races: 357 mounts, 30% wins, $2.95 ROI
Allowance races: 666 mounts, 22% wins, $1.77 ROI
Stakes races: 468 mounts, 20% wins, $2.38 ROI
Victor Espinoza is a great front-end jockey. He's been the strongest finisher out there for a while. He's also a guy who, for a long time, could make 112lbs -- so he probably isn't torturing himself to make weight, as much as most jocks do.
Dominguez was a great tactical rider, not just with speed, but also with mid-pack types and closers. A fearless ground-saver (unlike Vic Espinoza)
Based on the precedent set with Borel -- it's hard to argue that Espinoza shouldn't get into the Hall of Fame.
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