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Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
I wouldn't fall all over myself about Premium Tap's BC performance. Yes, he did better than I thought he would, but he got a dream trip and still lost by 3 1/2 lengths. I said he was 2 or 3% to win the race. He was 27:1 so the odds reflected about 3%. Do you honestly think he would have won that race more than one out of 30 tries? I would say the situation could not have worked out better for him and he still finished 3 1/2 lengths behind the winner.
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Well, "2 or 3%" sounds a little more generous than what you said before the Classic:
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Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Premium Tap has a chance in the Classic?
Not likely. Haven't seen the field but it's hard to think off-hand of any horse with less of a chance. Hell, if Ouiji Board ran she would have a better chance of winning. Not that she rates to finish ahead of him but at least she's an unknown quantity. Premium Tap has ZERO chance.
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When I challenged "ZERO chance", you wrote:
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Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
OK...a number approaching zero which I personally believe is less than 2.5% ( though with takeout I was really saying his actual representative chances would be under 2%...
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What I think is that with the information we had going into the race, he had more than a 3% chance to win that race. That's a little different from what you asked. But I do also think he showed he had more than a 3% chance to win the race.
I use a general rule that a 3-length difference in projected finish translates to half the chance of winning when capping the two horses. That hardly banishes the 2nd horse to the neglible-chance realm.
btw, I might agree with you about Ouija Board!
Also, I agree with every word you wrote in this thread about bounce.
--Dunbar