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Originally Posted by Hwjb
24/11/06
Musselburgh:
2:30 Kings Quay 4pts win
3:00 Lascar de Ferbet 3pts win
Newbury:
1:35 Wogan 1pt win
2:10 Oscar Park 4pts win
Nyborg Madrik 4pts win
2:40 Gungadu 8pts win
3:10 Lou du Moulin Mas 6pts win
Wolves:
1:40 A Little Bit Left 4pts win
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Hwjb,
It seems to me you have been betting more units than you did initially. Here's what you wrote in answer to an early question of mine:
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Hwjb
My points are on a simple scale from 1-10. I very rarely bet 7+ pts, and will probably only have a 5pt bet once a week or so...wanted to get this off with a juicy bet today, and as I speak Cheeky Lad has romped home! My wage is pretty poor so I can't afford to bet that heavily, and therefore 1pt = £10 for me.
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This week you've already made 6 bets of 5+ pts (since 11/21). The 1-2 pt plays, which were the bulk of your picks when you started, are now the exception.
This is natural, and even makes sense from a math standpoint if you have been building a bankroll. But if one reason you are keeping a bet log is for the purpose of seeing how skilled you are in the long run, then raising your bets throws a lot more uncertainty into interpreting your results. The more your results hinge on just a few races, the less meaningful they are. In your case, you had one whopper where you collected something like 124 units. But of the remaining 103 units profit, I think no single race contributed more than 35 pts. That makes your result more impressive than if you were having lots of 5-10 pt plays that were returning 50+ pts when they win.
--Dunbar