Let's just look at the last ten years. Obviously there is no way to know for sure, but how many of the following Preakness winners do people think would have failed to win the race had they drawn post #1 instead of wherever they actually ended up:
Funny Cide
Smarty Jones
Afleet Alex
Bernardini
Big Brown
Rachel Alexandra
My answer is....zero. They all would have won. Did being stuck down inside have a negative effect on Orb? Yeah. But that doesn't mean the #1 post is some kiss of death in the Preakness.
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