Quote:
Originally Posted by Sightseek
As to your first bolded commentary, wouldn't Bill Mott be a perfect example of a trainer who has been brilliant at racing in graded stakes as preps for the big one? Isn't that the whole concept of the "Derby Preps" system? Look at the sweep Pletcher makes of Graded Stakes year round, but how does he perform on Breeder's Cup, Derby day, Travers etc.? Sure he has won a few, but he has lost a lot more at less than 5-1.
As to the second bolded commentary, are the horses of winning percentage obsessed trainers really lasting any longer? Some will argue (and very effectively) that less racing is actually making horses less sound. Can you absolutely say that Normandy Invasion's career is going to last longer because despite reports of him acting and feeling great, he stayed in his stall yesterday? Itsmyluckyday got trounced in the Derby, but ran back to a solid second yesterday. Sure, there is no harm in him staying in his stall and waiting for the Haskell, but thankfully, there are still trainers out there taking a shot and that is what makes racing more interesting and stronger as a sport.
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Bill Mott has a very high win percentage in graded stakes races. He wins them at a 21% clip. I don't think he's using them as preps too often. I'm defining "prep" as giving a horse a race. It will happen occasionally that a trainer may use a graded stakes race as a prep. If a good horse is coming off an 8 month layoff and there is only time to get one race into the horse before some really big race, in that situation a trainer may use a graded stakes as a prep. That happens occasionally but it doesn't happen often enough to really make a difference in a trainer's win percentage in graded stakes races.
With regard to your question as to whether horses who race sparingly will last longer, I would definitely say "yes". However, nothing is absolute. It's not a perfect science. There are some hard-knocking claiming horses out there who are not very sound that stay in shape by racing. They don't train much between races. They rarely have workouts and they jog more than they gallop. If you're jogging your horse every day (instead of galloping him), he's going to need to race more often to stay fit.
None of this stuff is an exact science. Every horse is an individual. In general though, most horses don't stay sound for very long. If you give me a fresh, sound horse (either a first-time starter or a horse coming off a layoff) and we can run that horse once every 4-5 weeks, I would be thrilled to death if that horse lasts for 7-8 races before coming up with some type of issue that will require time off. The over/under is usually more like 5 races. That is just reality. I don't believe in injecting ankles. If you start injecting ankles, you may get a few more races out of a horse, but there is a good chance that the horse will be ruined forever.