Quote:
Originally Posted by Calzone Lord
What does any of that have to do with this thread?
No one thinks Pimlico is a speed favoring track. In fact, they typically slow the track down and the rail is sometimes bad on Preakness day.
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Then Orb is obviously at no disadvantage.
Last year you made the same arguments to knock I'll Have Another's chances in the Preakness. And as Cmorioles correctly pointed out last year in rebuttal to your knocking of I'll Have Another before the Preakness, where I'll Have Another was laying in the Derby was not indicative of his running style. He was obviously going to be further back in the Derby than he normally would be because they went :45 and change for the half.
The same thing is true this year. Orb is not some dead last come-from-behind plodder. He's not a horse who normally comes from 18 lengths back. So to say that he has somehow has less of a chance to win the Preakness because he came from 18 lengths back in the Derby is not a good argument.
It is obviously true that when there is a really fast pace in the Derby, there will be some horses that come from 20 lengths back, that run much better than they normally would have run. The job of a handicapper is to separate the good horses that ran well with good trips, from the bad horses who performed much better than they normally would have because of a good trip. A good handicapper doesn't just throw out every horse who got a good trip.
For example, I think most good handicappers take Golden Soul's performance with somewhat of a grain of salt (and rightfully so). The pace and the track conditions really helped him and he got a perfect trip (even better than Orb). There is no way that he would have run 2nd on a fast track with an average pace. Yet most good handicappers would not say the same thing about Orb. Orb totally figured in the race. He looked like the horse to beat and he won. Sure he got a good ride, but I wouldn't downgrade his chances in the Preakness because of that. If we could look back at the Derby and come up with some other horses that we think may have beaten Orb if they would have gotten his trip, that would be a different story. But what horse could you say that about? I don't think there are any. The only horse that might have come close would be NI.
All that being said, I don't think Orb is a lock in the Preakness. I think he is totally the horse to beat. He will be the favorite and he should be the favorite, but he's not a lock. Will he be overbet? If history is any indicator, I would say "no". If you look at the past 20 years or so, Derby winners have actually been underbet in the Preakness. In fact, if you blindly bet every Derby winner in the Preakness, I believe you would actually have made a large profit. Derby winners are usually overlays in the Preakness. Don't get me wrong, I highly doubt Orb will be some great overlay in the Preakness, but considering that Derby winners are usually overlays in the Preakness, I doubt Orb will be some big underlay. He will probably end up going off at right around the odds he should be.