Quote:
Originally Posted by Calzone Lord
One of the admirable things about Orb is his hardiness and ability to gradually improve a little with each start.
Animal Kingdom won his Derby with a looping wide move into the teeth of a slow early pace. It was the kind of analytically exciting performance that Orb has never come remotely close to delivering.
Animal Kingdom is a sissy though. He runs killer races and does historic things on all 3 surfaces ... his race in the BC Mile off that kind of layoff was unreal, winning a Dubai World Cup on Tapeta in that fashion ... just awesome.
But, he doesn't exactly campaign like Kelso or Spectacular Bid. He gives one great performance on the big race he's primed for, and either regresses or is put in mothballs.
Fu Peg wasn't the hardiest horse either.
I'll bet against it ... but Orb's best cards right now might be his hardiness and his lack of decent competition from within this crop.
I've Struck a Nerve came into the Risen Star Stakes with a 1-for-8 record, and he won it at odds of 135/1. Code West, who got humiliated in a workout by the filly Midnight Lucky finished 2nd. He couldn't even win an N1X allowance race on the Derby undercard.
And who was behind 135/1 shot I've Struck a Nerve and fading Baffert Code West in the Risen Star:
Golden Soul (Derby 2nd place finisher)
Normandy Invasion (Derby 4th place finisher)
Mylute (Derby 5th place finisher)
Oxbow (Derby 6th place finisher)
Palace Malice (Derby near record setting pace setter)
All of them in the wake of I've Struck A Nerve and Code West. The two big excuse horses that day (Oxbow and Normandy Invasion both had horrid trips in the Risen Star) both seem like the best chances in the Preakness.
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As always, I enjoy reading your analysis. I will say however that I don't fully understand the relevance of the risen star. If these are developing 3YOs then it stands to reason that earlier races may not be the best measure of current form and ability. Even if you look at the more recent Louisiana Derby, the top four have all returned to have solid next out performances (which I think also indicates that BSF were wrong about that race).
There continues to be a ton of Golden Soul bashing....There is an equal amount of excuse being given to Normandy Invasion. If you erase identifiers and look at the pre derby PPs of Golden Soul and Normandy Invasion you will see a lot of similarities in my opinion. The biggest difference was that the former was five times the price. Will the have similar tracks post Derby? I'm not sure, just trying to understand how Normandy backers tossed Golden Soul (if they did).