Quote:
Originally Posted by Dunbar
If you think the start cost Java War 2 lengths and that he ran an extra 7 lengths or so, you could reasonably add 14 pts to the 89 and use 103 when comparing to other horses's trouble-adjusted figs.
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Another way to look at it is how much EXTRA trouble did Java War experience, beyond what he can expect to experience on his next trip? If he is a chronically slow starter, and you have no reason to think they will fix that before the Derby, then you don't want to adjust his speed fig for that poor start when comparing it to other Derby horses. If he is a devoted come-from-behind-late horse, then you have to assume he will experience as much or more ground-loss when coming from behind in the Derby with 19 horses instead of 13 to deal with. Again, you don't want to adjust the speed fig upward. You might, in fact, be inclined to adjust it downward, on the assumption that passing 19 horses is likely going to be tougher than passing 13. Sure, he might find a route closer to the rail and pass the 19 horses that way, but the gain from that scenario is offset by the excellent chance that he will have the checked/steadied kind of trouble.
Unless you have good reason to think that Java War will have less trouble in the Ky Derby than in the Blue Grass, you're left with the original 89 as the best description of Java War's Blue Grass.
--Dunbar