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Originally Posted by Dunbar
Thanks for the info. Do you remember what Beyer's rational was for using a single variant? What did they think happened between the Gazelle and the Woodward?
Your 122 approx Beyer would be the equiv of perhaps a 128-130 Beyer for a horse getting the same time but running near the rail. That seems a bit high for me, but who knows.
Another thing. You show an approximate Beyer of 99.4 for the Gazelle. With a time diff of less than 2 secs slower than the Woodward, wouldn't the Beyer diff be less than 17. Your approx figs show a diff of 22.6, which seems to big to me, unless you, too, are using diff variants.
At any rate, I think we agree the Woodward was an amazing race for both horses.
--Dunbar
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If you recall, in his race before he ran a 128 Beyer and I had it at LEAST that, if not a point or two higher (Mth is tough at that distance because they don't run a lot of races at a mile and an eighth, but it came out to a 133 on my numbers or approximately a 129 Beyer) At the time I had a hard time believing the Woodward number because i didn't think much of St. Liam, but obviously he proved his worth and ability to run very fast. Beyer agreed with my original assessment that St. Liam wasn't nearly that fast which is the reason they had a 1 race variant.
As far as the difference goes between the Gazelle and the Woodward, I used a single variant on the day- the difference of 129 to 116 on my figures is 13 lengths (1 point = 1 length) so the Beyer number difference may be in my conversion. I have found it's approximately [72 - (100 - my figure)*(factor)] where the factor is based on the distance run since 1 point on Beyer's scale at 10F is different from 1 point at 5F. The factor I use at 9F is 1.7, right or wrong is up for debate, but it's the best match I can find.
I rewatched the race last night, what an incredible performance. I feel bad for the guy in the BC who had the only pick 6 live but didn't have GZ, whereever he is... he should have watched this race.