And here he is...
ALERT
3 g Zabeel - Kay's Awake (multiple G1-placed mare)
Breeder: Monovale Holdings Ltd
Owner: Te Akau Stud
Trainer: Jason Bridgman
Jockey: Matthew Cameron
6 starts
1 win
2 seconds
1 third
Major races:
None
Best replay to watch:
Maiden win, Ellerslie, 12 December
http://www.nzracing.co.nz/RaceInfo/4...ce-Detail.aspx
Derby odds: 16.00
+ All-time great NZ sire (sire of three NZ Derby winners: St Reims, Helene Vitality and Zonda), and his dam was second or third in three G1 races behind the likes of Seachange and Darci Brahma.
+ Running style looks ideally suited to a mile and a half.
+ Seems to be steadily approving and set to peak on Derby day.
+ Te Akau, Bridgman, Cameron is a champion combination.
- Untested against this class of opposition.
With the Kentucky Derby, people every year talk about a 'wise-guy horse' outside the favoured group. If there was one of those in the 2013 New Zealand Derby, it would have to be Alert. He's been steadily improving in the lower grades, slowly but steadily creeping upwards under everyone's radar. He has the pedigree ($150,000 yearling), and he has the owner-trainer-jockey combination. But he hasn't run against anything close to the class of horse he'll be taking on in the Derby, so he has to take a massive step up. But the way he's been running lately just makes it look like he might be capable of doing it. He just might spring a monumental Derby upset.