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Originally Posted by Kasept
Another thing not being taken into consideration in this discussion is where the figure/performance came in regards to Street Sense's development. He debuted fast (7.75) and then alternated with a top (5.5), pair (6.5), pair (5.5). The -2 is a 7.5 point move as a two year old in the fall. Hardly outrageous if the point of reference is taken without the stunningly fast figure Saturday.
If another Juvy had gone 10.5, 8.5, 7.5, 8.5, 1 in a similar series, we'd be impressed and all but wouldn't be fearing for his future. Street Sense started out as a faster 2 year old. It could simply be that this is his natural progression and he's that fast. As Rev pointed out, as a February foal, he should already ahead of the curve physically.
It could be that he's an early developer, but considering that he has been getting faster as the distances stretch out, I'd doubt it a bit. Had he started his pattern at a 16 and gotten down to the -2, I'd be a lot more concerned that the effort could do him lasting damage. But given that he started fast and got faster by his fifth start, I'm prepared to expect a continuation of good things from him under the care of one of the game's real horsemen.
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What you say is true but I still worry about 7.5 pts of development from a 2 yo. that already is running good figures. It just seems that very few if any horses that move up that much have any development left in them. I know he was a three year old but Talkin man had a huge jump up in the Wood and was never the same horse after. Though every horse and situation is different, and I am not a knocker of the horse by any means, I will be suprised if he becomes a superhorse and breaks through that number anytime soon.