Quote:
Originally Posted by tywizard
What you make of it if Ramon picked Alpha over Hansen? And how would it affect the respective odds.
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It's always a very goofy bet race. Workout reports, media storylines, and jockeys get way more factored into the betting for this race than any other. Big longshots get severly overbet. Mine That Bird would have easily been more than 300/1 off odds if the race was run on a Thursday at Random Downs.
In the order Dew put them in...
Bodemeister will probably be the ML favorite -- and open cold before gradually coming down to near favortisim off odds.
I'll Have Another has a lopsided Grade 2 win and a game SA Derby win in his only two starts this year. He will take plenty of California money.
Creative Cause -- He was 3rd in the BC Juvie, ran down Bodemeister when he got denied a lead in a race that earned triple digit Beyer and Big sheet fig. Obviously going to get bet. Less of a regional angle to him.
Union Rags is trained by Barbaro's trainer -- two GP preps like Barbaro -- believe it or not something as stupid as that typically leads to some betting. People are suckers for human BS. Pants on Fire got way overbet (8/1 off odds) last year simply because the jockey has a vag. Union Rags could be a surprise post time favorite if he is the weeks clocker buzz horse.
Take Charge Indy - Borel. Freaking Twice The Appeal -- who can barely outrun a goat -- was 11/1 in the Derby last year.
Gemologist - Pletcher's best hope - Undefeated Wood Memorial winner. It will attract money.
Alpha - Even if Dominguez goes here -- I don't think it will make a great big deal. Might boost Hansen's odds a little bit more than it will lower his. Poor race in the BC Juvenile over track. A little hang to him. Likely to fall through the cracks.
Hansen - 2yo champion, Kentucky connections, pretty horsey. He's probably not going to fall through the cracks in the betting.
Dullahan - half sibling to Mine That Bird -- a local trainer who has pulled off miracles over this track on big event days -- a horse who the bettors will view as the fields best deep closer. Jockey has won 3 Derby's before. I think this is another who could surprisingly be bet down to post favorite if the workout reports are real good.
The Sunland Derby winner will probably be 12th or 13th choice in the betting despite coming in off of the 2nd best last out fig in the field.