Bernardini is much better than Smarty. He has proven he can run on the lead or just off of it. It is much harder to burn out a horse in a 10f race than a 12f race too. Smarty had a problem relaxing too, something Bernardini does not have.
It isn't like Bernardini has already beaten Invasor, Lava Man, George Washington, David Junior, etc. He has beaten mediocre horses, and these here are all group/grade 1 winners themselves. I am sure many think their horse is just as good, and they would never ruin there chance of winning to make sure he didn't win.
Based on speed figures of the american horses and based on David Junior and George Washington's raw talent, Bernardini does not stand that much above this field.
If he runs what he has been running, he is very beatable. The feeling is though that he hasn't shown his best, and that is why he is such a heavy favorite.
He is a very shaky even money choice if you ask me. I think a horse like Ouija Board stands over her field a lot more than Bernardini. With a giving turf course, there is no filly with a shot against Ouija.
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