[jpops757]

Originally Posted by Pointg5

I think Lava Man will give him hell, not to say LM wins in doing this, but this is one game horse, he ran so hard in the Pacific Classic last year that they had to van him off, he ran himself into the ground and wasn't much after that race, based on his recent figs, he looks to be rounding into form. I don't think Bernardini needs the lead, but when he goes for it, LM will make him earn it and could take them both out...I still think Bernardini wins, but the problem is going to be where to make your run? If you do it on the backstretch before the turn, you run the risk of LM and Bernardini running themselves into the ground...If you do it on the turn for home, LM can navigate turns so quickly, it might put him too far ahead...

I think it's a huge mistake to assume, because Bernardini hasn't been asked that he can automatically go alot faster, that just doesn't happen. In fact Oracle mentioned this that studies have shown horses run their best #'s in easy romps. I still think Bernardini wins and he will be the single on about 80% of my tickets, but I will use Invasior and Lava Man just in case a speed duel sets up or LM runs off of the turn...

I agree that Lava Mans sxcelance at running the turns could cause Bermie to make a premature move for fear of hin stealing the race and thus setting it up for a deep closer[Invasor]. All that said early position going into and comming out of the first turn could a;ter the pace and the race could turn into a circle jerk. Lotta quality here and a stubbed toe and a little luck can alter the outcome.