10/26: Belmont Park ($27k C/O)
Interesting afternoon Sunday flirting with big P4 opportunity ($2,800+ for .50) at Keeneland before settling with a get-out hit on Carroll's $28 Point to the Wild. Dowager winner Senada -- a perennial bridesmaid -- was unappealing at the 6-1 ML, but went postward at 3X that number! Belmont, Keeneland and Santa Anita are drawing towards their ends, and a $27k C/O in New York to start the raceweek is very challenging. Day 3 of Breeders' Cup coverage continues from Churchill Downs with the pre-entries ready for consideration!
BELMONT PARK
POST-SCRATCHES
4th: S/HCP, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P6, P3, DD, Super)
Most Likely: #3 Exclusive Strike 7-2 WON ($4.40)
Best Value: #7 Parc des Princes 8-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Unbridled Heat 5-1 7th
Super Add: #6 Mr. Enrico 15-1 2nd
.10 SUPER: Supers cancelled
5th: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 7f-T (G/S, P3 DD, Super)
The faves -- #2 Sparks Will Fly (5-2) and #4 Reach for a Peach (7-2) -- are OK, but there are plenty of more interesting players at prices as good or better..
Best Value: #5 Silver Willow 10-1 11th
Next Best: #6 Rodinia 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Manero 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #10 Ann Flower 20-1 9th
6th:CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)
Most Likely: #2 A La Moda 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #10 Margo Verge 8-1 5th
Next Best: #9 Chickatari 5-2 WON ($3.80)
Exotics Use: #8 Rock Star Royalty 6-1 8th
Super Add: #11 Stellars Theory 10-1 2nd
7th: MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 6f-IT (P3, DD, Super)
Very tough to seperate these..
Most Likely: #4 Holiday Broad 7-2 WON ($10.60)
Best Value: #10 Fly to the Sky 20-1 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Steal the Appeal 6-1 12th
Super Add: #5 Centrique 6-1 5th
8th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-T (DD, Super)
Imagining is OK, but 2-1 is silly. Freshman Dorm is good now and we've been riding this train through the upswing..
Best Value: #4 Freshman Dorm 8-1 WON ($17.20)
Next Best: #10 Imagining 2-1 5th
Exotics Use: #5 E. H. Indy 6-1 8th
Super Add: #9 Abilio 8-1 4th
9th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f-IT (Super)
Difficult sequence doesn't ease up here..
Most Likely: #3 Departures 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 He's a Scrooge 4-1 5th
Best Value: #6 Haya's Boy 20-1 9th
Exotics Use: #2 Yesterday's Story 15-1 3rd
Super Add: #4 Old Kit Bag 10-1 6th
<$200 P6 Play:
4: 3
5: 1-5-6
6: 2-8-9-10
7: 4-10
8: 4-10
9: 3-8
1x3x4x2x2x2 = 96 x $2 = $192
<$75 P4 Play:
6: 2-8-9-10-11
7: 4-6-10
8: 4-10
9: 2-3-4-6-8
5x3x2x5 = 150 x .50 = $75
Good luck!
Steve
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Last edited by Kasept : 10-26-2011 at 09:11 PM.
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