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Originally Posted by Kasept
Let me clarify this a tad.. First, this applies strictly to the BC races at CD on the MAIN... The turf races don't apply since pace and trip make the figures vary more widely. Here's the CD numbers with a par (XXX) derived by dropping the highest and lowest of the figs, followed by the Beyer par (XXX) with the Churchill figs taken out, followed by the overall Beyer par (XXX)
CLASSIC: 116, 116, 115, 120, 122 (117/117/118)
JUVENILE: 99, 97, 100, 101, 102 (100/99/99)
SPRINT: 114, 112, 114, 113, 115 (114/114/114)
JUVY GALS: 92, 101, 92, 85, 91 (92/96.5/95)
DISTAFF: 108, 105, 105, 107, 115 (107/109/109)
Interesting note obviously is that the two girls' races are significantly 'slower' than the SPR, CLS and JUV... Based on the pars, you can draw the conclusion about whom is capable of running those figures. Par contenders based on the "winning" figure with their career best coming in:
(NOTE: Euro figs based on Timeform -14)
CLASSIC (117): Bernardini (117); David Junior (115*Turf); Geo. Washington (118*Turf); Lava Man (116*); Invasor (113); Sun King (113)
JUVENILE (100): C P West (92); Circular Quay (95); King of the Roxy (94); Principle Secret (96); Scat Daddy (95); Stormello (96);
SPRINT (114): Bordonero (115); Commentator (121); Dubai Escapade (115); Friendly Island (112); Henny Hughes (113); Kelly's Landing (112-at CD); Malibu Mint (115); Pomeroy (114); Thor's Echo (116); Too Much Bling (113); War Front (114)
JUV GALS (92): Cash Included (93); Dreaming of Anna (95)
DISTAFF (107): Balletto (104); Fleet Indian (112); Happy Ticket (104); Healthy Addiction (104); Hollywood Story (105); Pine Island (102); Pool Land (105); Round Pond (102); Spun Sugar (103)
May have merit.. May be entirely useless.. But it sure seems in historical events that have enough statistically significant info, that the Beyer par is a pretty strong model to identify the most likely contenders. May seem obvious, but as an example, I hadn't realized that Hollywood Story, who's a favorite of mine, has produced a pair of 105's, career bests, in her last 4 races...
Hope it's of use to someone..
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