Good horses aren't given a chance to naturally develop would be the logical culprit.
With a concentration of most of the top male talent in a few barns and with owners far more focused on the Triple Crown series (Derby mostly) far more horses are pushed beyond where they should be trying to get on the Derby trail.
When a trainer starts the year with 30-100 well bred colts he is far less apt to take his time or back off of one when he has ample replacements. Owners are far more willing to "sacrifice" some horses if it means getting one or more on the trail. How many horses are more or less ruined (at least in the short term) by this method of weeding out horses? Who knows but a lot of these wind up being the claiming horses Doug speaks of in his first post, just it is 3 years later, after they have enough physical infirmities that only juice trainers can get that talent to flash itself on occasion. Look at a horse like Flat Out. He went from a decent MSW win in his 2nd start in Dec right to a 1 mile stake. He was talented enough to make the jump but 2 starts later he was in a tough Derby prep going 1 1/8th. He wasn't strong enough to make it. At least he wasnt bred well enough in a weak stallion market to be sent to stud and after a year and a half off he was back. Credit his owner for giving him that much time and not giving up when he was reinjured to some degree after the comeback race. How many horses can make it back after 1 1/2 years? How many owners are patient enough to pay the bills that long? This is a rarity but look at his pp's and you see his development from a 2yo maiden late in the year and he was still developing this summer as a 5 yo.
Trainers win percentage is also a factor as horses aren't allowed to develop while racing but are asked to for top efforts every time with races spaced out and a lot of hard works in between. This makes for a lot of 6 race careers.
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