Miami has the best set of Dirk defenders in the league
Dallas has bad defensive matchups on Miami's wings and will have to play zone a great deal.
Dallas depth is not nearly a big a factor with the spread out finals schedule which will allow Miami to play its best players 40+ minutes and give Haslem extra time between games.
If Dirk's effectiveness is lowered, who picks up the slack?
Miami is athletic enough to defend perimeter enough to force Terry, Stevenson and Peja to put the ball on the floor which is a problem
Barea is a tough matchup for Miami on offense but when Miami goes James, Wade, Bosh, Miller, Haslem who does he guard? Who does Terry guard in that lineup? You dont want to give Miami easy baskets because they are vulnerable when go through dry spells which they seem to do at least once or twice a game.
Dallas has to completely dominate the boards, get a lot of put backs, shoot the lights out which will spread the defense and give them an even bigger rebounding advantage and get Miami in foul trouble. They can probably do it well enough to win a few games but this one should be Miami in 6.
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