Late Pace Figures for Derby Preps
I don't do numbers for Sunland... but here are the late pace figs for the rest of the preps....
Timely Writer: 182 late pace
Risen Star: 131 late pace
Dialed In's ALW race: 116 late pace
Louisiana Derby: 112 late pace
Gotham: 110 late pace
Rebel: 106 late pace
Holy Bull: 106 late pace
Sam Davis: 100 late pace
Fountain of Youth: 97 late pace
Whirlaway: 96 late pace
Tampa Derby: 92 late pace
Lecomte: 91 late pace
Southwest: 86 late pace
El Camino Real Derby: 85 late pace
Hutcheson: 84 late pace
Sham: 67 late pace
San Vincente: 65 late pace
Spiral: 57 late pace
Bob Lewis: 47 late pace
San Felipe: 44 late pace
Basically - the lower the number - the better chance closers have of winning. The higher the number - the harder it is for closers.
If you're 10 lengths back in the Timely Writer - you've got no chance closing into a 182 late pace fig. If you're 10 lengths back in the San Felipe - you're only worry is that you might be way too close to the pace.
It's kind of head scratching why all the preps in So. Cal seem to be going very fast early and very slow late. A lot of it surely has to do with riders assuming the track is speed biased ... so they are riding more aggressive through the early stages.
The opposite is happening at Fair Grounds this year ... too much gets made about that long stretch. At that track, It's not untypical to see maidens setting faster fractions in routes and holding well - on the same card when they're lollygaging in Derby preps.
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