Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
I'll revist this question again - even though I already got into it last weekend.
Here are the Beyers horses recieved in the days two two-turn routes.
Race #3:
Arch Traveler - 76 (ran a 90 last out - the sheet figures had him even faster than that)
Nacho Business - 75 (ran a 80 last out - 2nd place to him that day returned to win at 13/1 odds next out with a 7 point improvment)
Washington Rules - 71 (ran a 88 in his last start at GP - which was two starts back)
Private Prize - 71 (ran a 76 in his only prior dirt start - which came at age 2. He's developed since)
Cool Blue Red Hot - 68 (ran a 96 in his debut and an 85 last time out)
Pornci Prince - 62 (ran four races in the 67-to-78 range at age 2 - was making 2nd start off of layoff and was pressing easy pace)
Fountain of Youth:
Soldat - 96 (ran a 103 last time out - was reportedly training lights out - and was bet hard seemingly everywhere)
Gourmet Dinner - 93 (ran a 94 last time out - I guess the rider change from Madrid to Dominguez and the flawless trip did no good)
To Honor And Serve - 85 (102, 97, and 95 in his last three races - and while the 102 came on an unpressured lead - it was a rock solid number and the early pace was by no means slow that day. His trip could have been a whole lot more perfect in the Remsen had he been allowed to set less than quick fractions)
Bowman's Causeway - 81 (ran an 85 last out. I guess the jockey switch from R. Curatolo to Julian Leperoux didn't help)
Sheckleford - 58 - (ran a 89 and 85 in only two prior dirt races)
Racing Aptitude - 44 - (A stakes winner on turf - he merely reverted to his bad dirt form)
Casper's Touch - 39 - (Ran a 85 on dirt last out)
El Grayling - Used in paced and Eased late - (last 3 numbers in the 75 to 85 range - was oddly ridden. Acted almost as Gourmet Dinner's rabbit)
When I finally did my pace numbers for these two races - I had a feeling CJ would chime in that I was too high with a 106-to-109 and 86-to-89projection ... but he has to remember that Beyer's aren't made using his methods.
Figure makers need to be consistent.
I was a catcher growing up - not all umpires had the same strike zone. Some of them had a strike zone that went from the shoelaces up to the knees. Some of them had a strike zone that went from the belt up to the letters. Some had a very wide one - some had a very tight one.
As a catcher - regardless of what kind of strike zone they had - you just want it to be consistent.
There was nothing consistent with the route Beyers that day - based on how they've made Beyer figures on similar types of days at Gulfstream.
You tend to get huge beaten length margins at Gulfstream. Quality Road and Big Drama wouldn't have got close to the 120 range with the same standards applied as the ones used on this day. They had VERY soundly beaten horses running back to their races.
In this instance ... you have two fields of 3-year-old males .. all pretty much going backwards together at the time of year when 3yo males often develop and improve faster than any other type of horse by age and sex.
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I always had you figured as more of a catcher than a pitcher.