Thanks Joey but really I don't see how anyone could arrive at any conclusion but that one.
I think its pretty obvious when a green horse making his 2nd start and 1st time in a stakes gets beat only one length by a horse who is making his 4th start and 3rd start in a stakes race, that the one whose green and 2nd is gonna be the one who gets the ink about having more upside.

When I say odds shouldn't be considered in analyzing a race, I mean AFTER the race when dissecting it. I ,like many here, was stunned to see Nobiz at 8-5 and stunned to see that Scat wasn't favored. But that doesn't mean squat after its over and you pick the race apart.
Nothing is more hysterical(actually its sad) than listening to people make excuse after excuse for a favorite or well regarded horse after a race. Its as if they think that only faves can get bad trips and there's the old "well he only won by a neck but it was so easy and measured, blah blah blah". Thats garbage 99% of the time. How come noone ever says a 12-1 shot won by an easy measured neck? And how come when a favorite has some traffic everyone is always screaming that so and so should have won, but when you point out a tough trip that a longshot had, people respond with "doesn't matter, he wasn't gonna win anyway"? They are allowing their ideas before a race to interfere with the perception of reality
The first time you watch a race you are always going to tend to focus on the horses you have bet, thats normal. But when you go back to watch the replay(or replays) you really have to forget who you bet, and your preconceived notions about horses. You just have to watch the race and make notations about what you perceive happened.
That being said, Nobiz like Showbiz may have been one of the most overbet horses I ever saw in my life in terms of what I perceived to be value before the race. I thought his debut was aided by sitting behind a speed duel of 3 very subpar horses in blistering fractions and that his ten length win was more a product of a perfect trip where the others were stopping in the lane moreso than he was running away. So When he was 8-5 I didn't even cosider using him in my DD's. I pressed Scat Daddy and saved with Pegasus and Imanumbersguy.
But the reality of what I saw is that I misjudged his debut and didn't give Nobiz enough credit. Nobiz had that trouble at the gate(not horrible trouble) and when he made the lead he acted green tossing his head about like he was waiting on horses and running in spots. To do that in his 2nd start in that company I think hes the horse I would wanna bet next time out against this same group and can't see how anyone else could see it any other way.