[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by oracle80

This may be the biggest waste of space ever put on this board. We needed 77 posts to sum up a simple race?
Allow me to sum it up easily if you would.

1) Nobiz like Showbiz had a trip that all in all wasn't awful, wasn't great, was right in between. He was green in the lane, and in making only his 2nd start while diving into stakes company, would certainly be the one with the most projected upside. He was indeed ridiculously overbet at 8-5, but the horses' odds or any bets anyone made do not change the fact that his trip was his trip and the facts are the facts.
2) Scat Daddy was indeed an overlay at 5-2 for several reasons, first and foremost being his experience and performance in stakes races up to that point, and the fact that as a stallion prospect with a pedigree that suggests two turns may be a challenge, the barn definitely had aimed at that one turn mile as the best possible chance to get that grade one on the resume and the horse was trained for the Champagne as if it were the main goal.

In a nutshell? It's not Nobiz's fault that he was overbet, and I find it hard to understand why it matters what his price was in dissecting a race. A horses' odds have NOTHING TO DO WITH HIS TRIP OR PERFORMANCE AND SHOULD NEVER,EVER, UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES BE FACTORED INTO A TRIP OR RACE ANALYSIS!!!!
I can't possibly stress that enough. Every time I hear some mentally challenged person explaining a trip or performance to me and mentioning the odds the horse went off at, I immediately assume that their parents were eating lead paint chips when they were conceived.
Odds and horses performance are not related, not at all. In order to properly analyze a race, the horses odds must not be considered.
Nobiz ran a great race for a horse who had a little trouble at the break and was green in the stretch in making only his 2nd start and first in stakes company. He'd be the one I'd say has the most possible upside.

Spot ****ing on, Mike. Nice job.