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Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing
Believe me, I've seen scenarios where four horses have fallen down and it allowed a $80 horse to win loose on the lead before, but who can predict that?...You wouldn't bet Pegasus Wind to win because you thought the better and faster horses than him (Scat Daddy and Nobiz Like Shobiz) were going to get in trouble and that he would have things his own way that easily ad that is why he would win, would you?
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If I thought he was just 1-3 lengths worse than those other 2, then yes, I would bet him at 21-1. My point is that when a horse loses by less than a length, it doesn't take much of a change to make that horse the winner. I only need him (or horses like him) to win 6% of the time to show an extremely nice profit.
I'm sure you understand that capping isn't about picking the most likely winner of the race. If someone doesn't understand that any horse can win (and any horse can lose), then he/she has very little chance of being a successful capper.
--Dunbar