I don't believe in "locks" anymore. I was famous from about 2000-2002 on the old ESPN board for guarenteeing certain "lock" horses' defeats in big races (e.g.- FuPeg in Preakness&Classic, Riboletta in Distaff, etc). I still do it and I'll mention my "lock" defeats closer to this year's Holiday. After about '02, I realized that I can't possibly claim a horse to be a lock if I scoff at the public's locks.
However, I have still fallen victim to the bug. Ouija Board the last two Cups and probably this Cup as well, and Vindication are my strongest locks. Tiznow was perhaps my all-time lock in '01, but that was more emotional confidence that he would get it done. I, too, was all over Rock of Gibralter. 2002 really irritated me because favorites won 3 of the first 4 races and the Rock wasn't one of them. I'm still miffed at that.
Since Cup day became a holiday in my house back in 2000, I've been supremely confident in several horses other than the four mentioned. She's a Devil Due, Tempera, Starine, Island Fashion, and Artie Schiller ('04 loss) jump to mnd.
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