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Originally Posted by Dunbar
Put me squarely in the camp that thinks the 21-1 missing by a length is more likely the overlay than the 5-2 winning by 3/4. To call getting 5-2 on that narrow win a "steal" is far-fetched.
And to knock the 21-1 bet because it didn't "pay" is silly. If you can hit 10% of your 21-1 picks, you'd be the most successful bettor at the track. Missing by a length with that kind of longshot is evidence that you are on the right path.
--Dunbar
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I disagree from the simple fact that he had the best trip of any horse in the race and still couldn't get the job done....that means that he wasn't going to win under any circumstance - because he enjoyed the best possible scenario and failed, so 21-1 or 200-1 - or 8/5 for that matter - didn't matter....he lost with the best trip and NO excuses....he returned ZERO dollars to his backers...period