Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
If they made a profit on the race - I doubt they'll feel like the result proved them wrong.
Either way - she was a VERY poor even money shot who happened to run fine.
You have to bet against even money shots who are wildcards. The bookies in Europe almost got smoked at 7/2 on her .. but I'm not so sure 7/2 is even a fair price on a wildcard.
If you go by results - even the very best handicappers and bettors are going to be proven wrong A LOT. They're flesh and blood animals with a human on their back. If a horse improves one second over the distance of a mile - that's six lengths. Most races are so closely matched that the way they're run will ultimately determine who wins.
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Well one of them had her at 10/1 chance.........she lost so I guess they were right, I just would have loved that 10/1 at the top of the stretch, and would take it any day of the week if the race is run again and again with the same dynamics.
She was not even money on my line, I had her about 5/2 to 3/1, so she wins that race better than a quarter of the time.........after the race I think I did not give her enough credit, she probably wins it like 40%. I gave horses like Quality Road, and to a certain extent LAL to much credit for some of those easy wins against nada.