Quote:
Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin
I strongly disagree. Once you know how fast the track is and how it is playing, I think you will know what a reasonable pace is. I think it a huge mistake and a circular argument to say that "the front-runners must have gone way too fast, since they quit, even though they didn't appear to go that fast and even though the pace was only moderate based on the way the track is playing today."
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Make no mistake, :47 is a solid half for a 10f race at CD, even for the BC Classic.
The mistake that you're making is assuming that a simple analysis of the numerics is going to lead you to a conclusion on the outcome of the race. Have you looked at the pace figures for the Classic? It was a strong pace. It also completely collapsed. Even if you don't think the half-mile time itself was fast you can't deny that the pace took a mighty toll on the horses contesting it. When you have a pace, specifically in a route race that collapses, the late runners are going to benefit.