Quote:
Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin
I partially agree but not totally. I would expect the grade I, male milers to run at least a full second faster than Distictive Dixie even if there wasn't much pace in the race. Even if they ran equal early fractions, I would expect the males to run a mimimun of a second faster. I agree that better quality horses usually run faster fractions but not always. I see plenty of grade I races where the fractions are not fast. On the other hand, fast fractions don't always translate to faster times. They usually do, but not always. If the best horses in the race are speed horses, if the fractions are too fast it may slow down the final time. But if the best horses in the race are come-from-behinders then a fast pace will almost always improve the final time.
Anyway, I can't tell you exactly how much the track slowed down over the course of the day. Between the two races we're talking about, it may have been only a tick or two but I think that track does slow down later in the day. Do you disagree that the track slowed down over the course of the day on opening day (Oct 31)?
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I don't think there's any evidence to support that. Especially considering the fact that you're dealing with 2yo's without a lot of established form.
The three outliers would be the 5th, 6th and 11th- the 5th, an allowance won by almost 20 but in a rather modest time- resulting in a 73 raw Beyer; the 6th, a very fast maiden won by 8 for an 84 raw Beyer, and the 11th, a slow maiden won with a raw Beyer of 59.
5th: The connections of Blame sent out the winner, who was visually impressive- but the also-rans looked like they wanted a place to lie down. There's a good chance this is a negative key race.
6th: Steve Asmussen sends out a dominating 2yo winner who went off favored in his 2nd start and ran well, then crushes in his 3rd start. I've heard this story before.
11th: The winner went off at 3-1 despite being in the 12 hole and debuting at Presque Isle, 4th beaten 6 lengths. The only other horse to run went off favored, and was dreadful at KEE. Clearly, this was the weakest of the three maiden races at 6F on the day. Not surprising that it was also the slowest race on the day.