[miraja2]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Clearly, Fly Down got a harder trip than the winner, who got a perfect inside run, while FD was wide. But I think losing a prestigious race like the Travers and then explaining it in terms of not getting as good a trip as the winner, misses the point. The question is whether FD could've beaten AE with the SAME TRIP for each?

The answer is YES. If FD would've changed leads in the stretch, he probably, maybe definitely, wins the race, as he just missed a head bob.

Which takes us to the two likeliest suspects: Lezcano and Zito. Now, I'm not going back (at this point, anyway) and looking at FD's previous races to see if he changed leads in them --- whether consistently, sporadically or never.

1) Lezcano -- Hard to believe that so many jocks can't get these horses to change leads in the stretch run (or keep them on righty lead, once they do so). Now, Lezcano is stinking up the joint lately but since he's not the only jock who rides horses that don't change leads, it follows that trainers have something to do with this

2) Zito --- The horse is towards the end of its 3 year old season, Nick, don't you think he should be changing leads under pressure? Shouldn't this be automatic at this point? And, if it's not, shouldn't this be a PRIORITY? It's not like he's some cheap filly whose action falls apart the second she's put under any semblance of pressure. No lead change = lose a prestigious G1.

I realize that some horses are just stubborn and won't let go of bad habits. In this case, a bad 'habit' was the difference between overcoming a perfect trip by the winner and taking home a huge win for the connections. What might've been if more attention was payed to 'details'.

You do?