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Old 08-23-2010, 10:51 PM
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_ed_ _ed_ is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Auckland, NZ
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Haha, a life? What's that?!

I Am Sam was definitely expected to win last weekend, but that was in a much lower grade. He came 14th in his only try at G1 level, so I think that might explain his big odds here.

You're right about Fritzy Boy's terrific 3rd in the 2007 Derby. Since then he has won a G1 (this race, actually, in August 2007) and finished second in another G1 last season. He's best on wet ground, which most people are expecting we'll have for this year's Mudgway. That's why his odds are so low. But I'm not so sure it will be wet - it's a Slow 9 there today, and there's quite a lot of sun and warm temperatures forecast for the rest of the week. I think it might be in the Dead range.

The Hombre won the G3 Rough Habit Plate in Brisbane and then was placed in the G2 Grand Prix. He was disappointing in the Queensland Derby, but apart from that he had a great season. The Mudgway is on his home track, so I think people are expecting him to run a big race.

Firebolt was very impressive going wire-to-wire in a couple of stakes races in Brisbane over similar distances to the Mudgway. Roger James has a huge opinion of him, and he's a very highly respected and astute trainer.

I do think Keep The Peace's odds are a bit low. She did win the Oaks, and if it hadn't been for Katie Lee, she would have won the 1000 Guineas as well. But I think the distance of this race is a bit short for her - I wouldn't expect her to beat these guys over a distance shorter than a mile.

You're right about Mufhasa taking a while to get going. He seems to usually be at his peak in January-March time. But he was great in this race last year, finishing a close second to Tavistock. A repeat of that effort would see him go close to winning this one.

Trying to think of who you might be talking about for the mile race. Maybe La Etoile? She won the big mile on January 1. If she's the one you mean, I think they're being careful with her because she came back from a race in April with an irregular heartbeat.

I actually saw this story about Coniston Bluebird just a few days ago:
http://www.racingandsports.com.au/ra...asp?NID=184026
I hope he does well. Maybe he can make that Derby result seem less ridiculous!

Imabayboy will be racing. I think they might look at some of the nice big G2 cups in the summer for him - Counties Cup, Waikato Cup, Avondale Cup, etc.

Hope that helps!
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