Quote:
Originally Posted by tiggerv
Colonial and Tampa
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The problem I have with CNL (and FG and AP, and some others) is that too often the leaders collapse very late. Your horse could be home on any other course but get run down the last few strides on these courses.
I suspected this was due to course issues of some sort. This was clarified by Desormeaux in the post race interview of the Virginia Derby. He spoke about the course(s) being uneven, how there are portions, in the stretch and elsewhere, that are lower than the rest of the course. And, how it was very important to keep Paddy O'Prado's head up while running over those portions so that he didn't bobble or lose his stride.
Speed favoring turf courses can be a real pain in the ass to handicap but at least they play consistently. It's courses like those mentioned above that are the most difficult to beat because you don't know how they'll pay and you can lose with the best horse very late.