I haven't posted here in months, maybe years (have kept reading), but after seeing so many astute handicappers (that I respect) IMO completely miss the mark with this tremendous mare has finally got me out of hiding.
At this point, you have to believe in one of 2 things
1) Zenyatta is simply the luckiest horse ever to live. She runs her A game, max effort every start. It just so happens when she runs a 95, the next best horse runs a 94. When she bring it up to run a 102, the next best horse coincidentally runs a 101. And that 112 just had to be a fluke so lets not go there.....The odds of this happening for 18 straight races is astronomical. A better thoery would be the races are rigged and the jockey's purposely let her win ever race. At least that's statistically possible.
2) Or the crazy theory that she runs to the level of her competition. Zenyatta has many gears, and it only takes watching her races a couple times to see them. Usually she never has to go into 2nd gear (see last race) while others (usually due to Mike Smith underestimating the competition) she needs to into a higher gear to win. Or when she faces superior competition, she can really gear up....While her last race (which earned a mighty 94 beyer) signaled to many of you how crazy zenyatta fans are for claiming her greatness after a race where she beat a weak horse by a head. But just watching the race should clue you in. The pace was 1.15 and change, zenyatta was swung 7 wide, and not only did it not hinder her at all, she was past the leaders in a matter of strides. She was going two to their one. Once she got the lead, she geared down which gave the appearance of closeness when this was by far her easiest race of the year. This signaled to me is the same top form as last year. Remember all those slow beyers before the classic last year due to slow pace?
Why is she different on dirt? Hard to give a definitive answer. But my guess is that she DOES GEAR DOWN ON DIRT TOO. Even when she opens up 3-4 lengths on dirt, she could have gone much faster in that period if there was a horse she had to catch. Why not win by 1-2 lengths like usual? On synthetics shes overcoming such slow paces that even these cheap horses shes beating can fly home and make it seemingly close when Zenyatta gears down. On dirt, Zenyatta tackles the leaders earlier and since they have set a more honest pace, they are tired. And Zenyatta geared down is still running faster than them and pulling away.
Do I think she's the best dirt horse in the world? There is no way to know until she races again real competition on the surface.....But there sure isn't anything in her PP's that give me any hesitation that she will be an absolute dominate force come Classic time. I am with everyone who believes shes be handled with kid gloves. If they didn't want to ship east, at least face the boys out West over her preferred 10F distance. But just because she hasn't be allowed to repeatedly showcase her greatness doesn't mean it doesn't exist.
Quick question: If Zenyatta wins the Classic this year with a 110+ beyer, are the skeptics going to become believers? Or are we going to hear how there was a pace meltdown, or the competition obviously must have been overrated if they lost to her, or that its not hard to win one big race a year when you stay home for the rest of it.
