Quote:
Originally Posted by brockguy
Weight isnt an issue for me - its WFA so thats what older horses are supposed to carry against 3yos at this time of year, he'll give 8 pounds to these guys in Paris in October.
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I know it's WFA, but the scales in Europe favor the 3yo's to an extreme in relation to how things are in North America.
You mention the Arc ... since 1994, 3-year-olds have won the Arc 13 times while older horses have won the Arc just 3 times.
Compare that to our Breeders Cup Races:
3-year-olds have taken 9 BC Classics while older horses have won 17.
3-year-olds have taken 7 BC Turfs while older horses have won 19 races. In one edition a pair of older horses dead-heated - so you could say 20 wins.
3-year-olds have taken 8 BC Miles while older horses have won 18.
3-year-olds have taken 7 BC Distaffs while older horses have won 19.
3-year-olds have taken 6 BC Sprints while older horses have won 20.
I think the spread in weight has something to do with that. If you believe Thoro-Graph or the Ragozin sheets, 8 pounds at 12 furlongs equals 3 3/4 lengths ... which is a very significant margin in a turf race. If you believe Beyer's study in Beyer on Speed the impact is about 2.5 lengths.
Basically, the older horses give a way a big handicap to 3yo's in a race like the Arc. In the Breeders Cup races - the weight break the 3yo's get is just half of what it is in the Arc.
Quote:
Originally Posted by brockguy
The time isnt as big a deal as you make it to be - the course in Ascot is only 5 or so years old and they are constantly breaking track records at every distance - there isnt that many top quality 12f races at Ascot (i can only think of 2, the King George and the Harwicke - Harbinger won both!). I havent got the chance to watch the race after the King George but the comments are that it was a steady early pace, unlike the feature.
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I get that.
I've never been a big fan of speed figures for turf races - but since '91 when they've first been published - the top figure earned in a turf race was a 118. Daylami's BC Turf win was a 118 for instance.
Considering the beaten length margins between each horse in the field - and the final time in the next race at the same distance ... it's 100% impossible for the winners Beyer figure to be anything less than a 120 and even when you bake some real caution into the number - it's still in the 125 range .. which makes it literally open lengths better than any single performance we've seen in a turf race since '91 over in North America.
You go on about how the two 3yo's are just ok - overrated horses who are far from superstars. How the two big older horses are just honest nothing special types who didn't run to their best. That's fine. Even assuming that
all of them didn't fire their good race and ran at a level that might get them beat in one of our typical crappy Grade 3 turf stakes in America .. even assuming that, the winner still ran a better race than any turf winner we've ever seen in America since '91 based on figures.
Quote:
Originally Posted by brockguy
I do feel im being overly negative here when we saw a brilliant performance but Im yet to be convinced that he is a better racehorse than Shergar, Dancing Brave, Dubai Millennium and Sea The Stars..
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That's fine. Outside of two races at 12 furlongs at Ascot ... what special has this winner ever done in his career? Nothing special.
I'm of the opinion that's he a rapidly improving 4yo and not a course and trip specialist ... but great horses always have to go and hold form for the public to give them the respect they deserve.
What he does in the Arc over possible soft ground, without such a choice early position, for a legendary trainer who I believe still hasn't won the race before ... that is what will ultimately define the horse in the public's eye. In my eye .. what he does in that situation won't matter at all.
His performance yesterday was an all-time great treasure - both visually and analytically.
I'm not into art or music that much .. but he just painted a picture or put together a song for the ages. His next few pieces of work will determine his place with the great artists, but his piece of work yesterday was as good as it ever gets and nothing can change it much.