I wish there were more info on what kind of personality each horse had. For instance, would a horse who's skittish psych himself out in front of 150,000 screaming fans, or would the commotion and added adrenaline cause a frightened prey animal to run even faster and further than he ever has before? Do you think a calmer horse does better in this environment or scenario than a hyper one? Or a smart horse vs. a dumb horse? These are animals with (supposedly) less intelligence than dogs. A dog runs and hides under the bed if he hears thunder. I refuse to believe a crowd that size, with all the pomp and fervor of the Derby, doesn't play into this race a great deal. Like when jockeys talk about hitting the final turn and running into the "wall of sound." Some human beings wilt under that type of excitement (and some rise up). What could possibly be going on inside a horse's head?
I'm not trying to be smart-assed at all. These are legitimate questions I have. They can come out with all the different figures and formulas they want, but I think that animal and/or horse psychology is the great unexplored territory in handicapping.
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