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Originally Posted by bellsbendboy
The single most important factor in handicapping a race on turf is ignored by most handicappers. The turf rail.
In a nutshell, track superintendents use the turf rail to protect the grass. After a dozen or so races, over a couple of days, they erect the temporary rail moving the race outward from the hedge. At Churchill for instance, the settings are; zero (hedge), 15 feet and 22 feet. How does the movement effect the race?
4 rank outsider, virtually wire to wire, $71 ( I saw a poster pick this horse (on Saturday) but this was the proverbial blind squirrel finding an acorn, if the race was on the hedge this horse had no chance)
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BBB,
Turf rail awareness was covered brilliantly by Dick Powell this past winter on Brisnet in a piece about the movement of it at Gulfstream the first three weeks. I imagine it's still available and I suggest everyone look at it in advance of this year's GP meet... Your points are well taken! Keeping track of portable rail placement helps find bet-backs and bet-againsts...
As for Embossed, Gus Alonso sang his praises on ATRAB Friday on our Preview Show, and backed it up lucratively on the Tuesday running at KD. I liked him as well, but as an underneath use.. At 12-1 on the ML he was intrigiung.. Aty 35-1 at post time, he was a RIDICULOUS overlay and super playable.