Stay Put (10/1 on the ML) is a classic example of a horse like Ice Box that has slow numbers - but earned them with very unfavorable setups and figures to get a great setup tomorrow. He just doesn't have a race anywhere on his form that tells me for sure that he can win if he gets things his way like he figures to.
Here are the pace figures for the Silverbulletday and Risen Star:
Silverbulletday: 1/4: 106 1/2: 102 3/4: 108 Final: 86
Risen Star: 1/4: 76 1/2: 77 3/4: 85 Final: 94
Obviously the most striking thing is how supersonic fast the Silverbulletday was for 6fs and how it totally fell apart in the final 2.5fs.
Devil May Care was denied the lead after 6f in the SBD - but would have been loose on a 8 length lead in the Risen Star .. and that's not even factoring in that she broke a step slow and was caught 5w, 3w on the turns. She could have been 12 in front with just 2.5fs to go before stopping to a virtual walk in the stretch.
One-run closers like Stay Put and Ron The Greek have no chance in a race when the speed horses are full of run late ... just as Devil May Care and Quiet Temper had no chance of seeing out 8.5fs when they're going way too damn fast in the opposite of the extreme type race shape.
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