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Originally Posted by King Glorious
U may say it's illogical but I don't know about that. I mean, facts are facts and so far, the fact is that eight times the QE II winner has come over and eight times they've been soundly defeated. By contrast, seven times the QE II runner-up has come over and they have three wins and a third. This kind of record sounds eerily similar to that of the Arc. No winner of that race has ever come over and won the BC Turf but six Arc losers have won the race. Are either of these things coincidences? Maybe. Maybe not. I think the most compelling reason for why George Washington can be the one to break the trend is the one u gave about him not having had a long and tiring season. It's my opinion that u have to be in top shape to handle a course and race like Ascot's QE II and asking a horse to reproduce such an effort so soon in today's game is perhaps asking too much. I also think that because of the course layout at Ascot, the winners of this race are usually horses that are probably better suited to 9-10f in American races. Notice the names of Giant's Causeway (2nd by a neck in BC Classic) and Falbrav (3rd by a head in BC Turf) as well as Rakti, Starcraft, and Dubai Millennium. I think all of those horses were better at longer distances than at 8f. I think that the mile at Ascot is more of a test of stamina than it is here where speed is king.
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Of course the BCM shapes more like a 7f race, which is why I liked Ifraaj for this year's renewal before his setback. But by the same token, George Washington certainly wont be beaten for a lack of speed. O'Brien's one worry before the Guineas was whether he had the stamina for 1m such is his speed.