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Originally Posted by boswd
You see when you play a percentage game you can have high numbers that may be misleading.
"311 Breeders' Cup horses have had their final prep races at Oak Tree. Of those, 31 individuals have gone on to victory, and an additional 63 horses have placed second or third. Of those horses which have used Oak Tree as their final steppingstone to the Breeders' Cup, a whopping 38 percent have finished first, second or third."
I would love to see the number of horses who have had their final preps at Belmont and the number of ITM horse as well. Something tells me that their have been a higher number of horse tuning up at Belmont Vs. Oak Tree and more winners but the percentage would not be as high.
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What might be more interesting would be to see how the horses that prepped at Belmont performed in relation to their odds versus how the ones that prepped at Santa Anita did vis a vis their odds. I guess, to be fair, one would have to eliminate the BCs that were in California and NY as those provide a somewhat unfair homecourt advantage at least in this situation. These would probably be the only two regions that would provide a large enough sample size to get a reasonably true picture.
I bet both jurisdictions performed similarly in terms of odds and probably overall the NY preppers performed better if only because they host more prestigious races and rated to draw better horses.
I just find it funny that SA would choose to advertise their supposed success when the actual numbers they gave don't exactly work in their favor.