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Originally Posted by somerfrost
I've debated this for...well, since 1973. Secretariat was the greatest horse to ever set foot on a track...period! All you had to do was see him run to appreciate him...there was no PR campaign, no smoke and mirrors, just pure talent! I won't post in this thread again as folks have their minds made up one way or another...I've given the stats hundreds of times, broken down every race...some folks have an argument for every fact...so be it! He ran a 2:24 in the Belmont...to say he wasn't a 2:24 horse is ridiculous...he ran the race! And Sham was fully capable of running a 2:25...but not after going under 1:10 for 6f...pace makes the race and Secretariat's pace that day reduced the others to also-rans...name me a horse that could have run with him that day? Sham would run the likes Point Given, Sunday Silence and the other so-called "better" horses into oblivion, only Tiznow of the recent runners would possibly best him, and he would have to catch him!
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You get only agreement from me. Secretariat also grades-out as the best 3yo in every analysis I have done. His closest competitor is Man O'War and they were pretty much even in my opinion. My data base is limited to only horses that raced in the US since 1900. I have no idea how the horses stack-up Euros vs. US for example. The best female...Ruffian...and it's not even close as to 2nd best among the ladies. I also don't compare 3yos to the 4&up group. Elders have a definite advantage...about 4 lengths on average at a reference distance of 10fl. Many, when comparing the past greats, forget about this fact. Secretariat and Spectacular Bid is a good case in point. Those that consider Bid to be better than Red are remembering the 4yo Bid and the 3yo Secretariat. As 3yo to 3yo, Secretariat ran several lengths faster than Bid on average. As to the chances that Secretariat would have improved had he raced as a 4yo?...It works out like this. 70% of horses that go on to race as elders improve their average run times. Of the remaining 30%, many have injury related issues. This means that the odds that Red would improve is greater than 70 percent. Actually, he would have needed no improvement to defeat all but a very small number of the very best past greats. I apologize for getting off topic.