[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Gander

King:
Are you basing this prediction off of Zenyatta's figures, and if so which ones are you using? Or are you more of a visual/trip based handicapper and see Zenyatta as the kind of horse that hasnt ever been full out and has plenty left in the tank each time?

I dont get the strong conviction that this horse will win the Classic. I dont see how any of her other efforts scream out that she is a horse that will beat this talented group in an "easy" sort of effort. I'm not a huge fan of hers nor am I a basher, but to me, she looks like an extremey good horse who has been facing very mediocre to weak competition, and never running a bad race which is very unusual in this game.

But in my opinion, this field is enormously talented. You have some good horses (Zenyatta, Richards Kid, Colonel John) who excel on this surface, and you have some really good horses (Summer Bird and Quality Road) who are in very good form and whose abilities may just cancel out the poly advantage. Then you have talented horses that seemingly never run bad races and can run over any surface (Einstein and Gio Ponti). Finally you have the euro wildcard like Rip Van Winkle, who probably will be overbet because of last year's result, but still figures dangerous. Toss in two closers who on their best days can make things very interesting if their is a pace collapse (Mine that Bird and Awesome Gem).

If Zenyatta wins, it will be the 2nd best story of the year behind Rachel's entire campaign, but it will also be a much better field than any of the ones Rachel beat by a mile.

I wont be as bold to say she cant win, but I dont really see it and her odds will make her an automatic throwout for me anyways.

Exactly what are you seeing about her to make this kind of prediction?

The day I use figures to tell me more than what my eyes see is the day I quit this game. From a figure standpoint, she doesn't come close. From what I've seen on the track, she looks the most likely to win. There are questions about so many of the others, who will take to the track, who will best be helped by the pace, etc, but there are none about her. I don't think Richard's Kid or Colonel John are close to her in ability. Nobody knows if Rip will like the surface. Ice entering Summer Bird in the Turf tells me that he doesn't like what he's seeing on the surface. I've never thought Quality Road wanted to run this far. Mine That Bird didn't look like he liked it when he ran on it and Awesome Gem just doesn't like to win races period. Gio Ponti and Einstein are the two horses to worry about in my opinion (of course Rip if he takes the track) and I'm just not convinced that they are better than her. I think the only thing that can keep this from being a romp would be Rip taking the track.