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Originally Posted by Gander
It was originally posted that Invasor is 7/2. Think about this. The BC Classic is 7 weeks away, he hasnt run in his final prep yet. We dont even know if he makes the BC Classic.
You will be able to get in the neighborhood of 7/2 on Invasor in the Jockey Club Gold Cup in 2.5 weeks the day of that race. That race will surely come up weaker than the BC Classic with Bernardini being his chief opposition.
Why wouldnt you just bet Invasor at Belmont in 2 weeks at around the same price, in a field that will not include Lava Man and some of the possible Euro unknowns on a track he has already won on?
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That's all true, Gander. But at the 7-1 available at Gameday, you cannot make those statements. I'm not saying Invasor is a good bet at 7-1, only that 7-1 can't be dismissed without some thought. (in the way you showed that 7-2 can)
If someone really liked Invasor, the 7-1 might be reasonable. We will NOT see 7-1 on Invasor in the JCGC, and if Invasor is good enough to win the BCC, he will almost certainly show it in the JCGC. And there goes his BCC odds, if you see what I mean.
For someone who really likes Invasor's chances in the BCC, the best reason to NOT take the 7-1 is that something better may be available when Pinnacle and TheGreek get around to posting their future odds.
--Dunbar