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Originally Posted by Cannon Shell
Guerrero and Helton have better numbers than quite a few current hall of famers.
Guererro should be a cinch. He was one of the top 5 all around players for the majority of his career, mostly playing in parks that dont favor hitters. He had the best arm in baseball outside of Ichiro before he got hurt though he was never a great outfielder.
Like Guerrero, Helton has numbers and has been injury plagued but played in Coors which means he should be held to a higher standard.
Ichiro is a lock as is Chipper Jones.
Hoffman is deserving and likely.
IMO Smoltz should be in easy.
Damon is a no as is Pettite (not because they are Yankees either)
Abreu probably wont do enough
Thome and Sheffield are the toughest for me.
Sheffield played 21 seasons and ran up some nice career numbers but is still 300 hits shy of 3000. Out of 21 years he had 8 really good seasons, so he actually had more subpar seasons than really good ones. And this is during the juice era where numbers are generally inflated 20% or so. He was a terrible fielder at a bunch of positions and has been linked to steroids which makes his top seasons at later ages suspicious. I'd say no to him.
Thome is similar in that he has played a long time and was limited in most areas except for power hitting. Despite being known for HR's he only led the league 1 time. He made 5 all star teams which is less than most HoF'ers. He was in the top 5 MVP voting 1 time. He never won any awards. He did lead the league in k's 3 times. He only has 2100 hits despite the length of his career. He is ranked 23rd all time in slugging % and is 48th in OBP though both are positively effected by the era he played in. He is 10th lifetime in walks but that is countered by being 2nd all time in strikeouts. His numbers are very similar to harmon Killebrew but he played during the modern deadball era. I would be surprised if he gets in but I dont know if I would vote for him.
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I once heard someone say, that if you really have to think about the player then no should probably be the answer.
Besides he Coors field thing, I just feel like Helton has flown below the radar for much of his career. It seemed like he never got the recognition he deserved and when it comes time for the Hall I think all that lack of press/spotlight might end up hurting him.
For Vlad, although he has had some great season. I just don't think he ever reached that level that everyone thought he was destined for. I know thats unfair, but unfortunately it might come into play come voting time.
Sheff is a guy that's on the fence and from what I remember he wasn't the most popular guy with the media either. That and the allegations might hurt him, but I do think he will eventually end up in.
You make valid points about Thome. He did also play in hitter's parks, but I really think his HR's will carry him in.